Friday: 6 July 2012
It’s The Month of June, Number 77 in a series. June was mild for a lot of (other than those in the central US) and then in the last week turned brutally hot.
Here are the usual temperature anomalies products, at the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.
The high temperature anomalies were found primarily in the central US, this time around, with the most unusually hot weather in the eastern Rockies with parts of CO, WY, and NE up to 6-8 degF above normal. The Atlantic states, the Southeast, and especially the Pacific States all received normal or cooler than normal weather.
Until the last few days in June, of course!
We find the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation plots here.
Much of the US is under drought conditions this summer. The fourth named tropical storm of the season, Debby, brought relief to much of Florida, but had little effect elsewhere except possibly to have drawn in the incredibly hot weather of the last few days of June. Only the northeast and northwest US got extensive amounts of rain.
For the Athens, GA area:
Here is a plot of our temperature swings in June, along with precipitation amounts as experienced in Wolfskin:
Most of June was relatively cool for us, with high temperatures seldom exceeding 90 degF. We had some promising amounts of rain after the first week, and then nothing the rest of the month. High temperatures averaged out to a cool 87.4, compared to 88.8 normal high. We had 4 days more than 1 standard deviation above normal highs (4.8 normal), and 7 days more than 1 standard deviation below normal lows (4.8 normal).
It was the last two days when everything went crazy. Temperatures spiked to 110 degF, with 107, 108 and 109 high temperatures common everywhere in the area. These set not just local records for the day, but for the month and in one case, for ever (109F).
Here is the end-of-month histogram that shows the breakdown of high and low temperature range counts from June 1948 on. It just emphasizes normalcy for June 2012, with no category falling outside of the error bars of the average. Possible exception is the 100+ Highs category, where 3 such days falls outside of the 0 +/- 1 range.
We continue our dry weather, with only two events of rain during the month. The figure below shows the Athens precipitation data which are official for our area. As usual the green line shows our actual rainfall, the red shows the average accumulation expected. The black dots are rainfall over the last 20 years, the vast river of peach shows the standard deviation.
Our total out here was 3.40", and in Athens it was 2.95". 4.18" is normal, so once again we’re below the average.
Prognosticator stuff:
What is the neat prognosticator telling us? It says that for the next week the South can expect cooler than normal temperatures, and warmer just about everywhere else. After that, and for the next three months it will be warmer than usual in much of the US.
Precipitation will is a little complicated to describe for everyone, but at least in the southeast the next three months shows at least an equal chance of normal precipitation, and above normal over the next week or two.
ENSO stuff:
Finally, the folks at CPC have a version of PDF or HTML that is much different from their previous presentations, but at least it’s there and the link isn’t broken.
Temperatures in the western Pacific are starting to increase enough above average that there’s a 50% probability of an El Niño developing over the next few months. This might provide some relief from drought and heat this summer, as well as helping to suppress hurricane development in the North Atlantic. However at the same time, global temperature averages increase in an El Niño and decrease in a La Niña, so in the long term we might have the hottest year on record ahead of us.
The US Drought Monitor continues to have us in extreme to exceptional drought, depending on where you are in Georgia. In fact, most of the US is now under at least abnormally dry or moderate drought classification, with a lot of the country in severe or extreme drought.
NOAA’s Monthly State of the Climate product for May is available. Scroll down for a Year to Date summary for each US region. The summary for 2011 regionally, nationally, and globally is also available.
Here are the usual temperature anomalies products, at the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center.
The high temperature anomalies were found primarily in the central US, this time around, with the most unusually hot weather in the eastern Rockies with parts of CO, WY, and NE up to 6-8 degF above normal. The Atlantic states, the Southeast, and especially the Pacific States all received normal or cooler than normal weather.
Until the last few days in June, of course!
We find the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s precipitation plots here.
Much of the US is under drought conditions this summer. The fourth named tropical storm of the season, Debby, brought relief to much of Florida, but had little effect elsewhere except possibly to have drawn in the incredibly hot weather of the last few days of June. Only the northeast and northwest US got extensive amounts of rain.
For the Athens, GA area:
Here is a plot of our temperature swings in June, along with precipitation amounts as experienced in Wolfskin:
Most of June was relatively cool for us, with high temperatures seldom exceeding 90 degF. We had some promising amounts of rain after the first week, and then nothing the rest of the month. High temperatures averaged out to a cool 87.4, compared to 88.8 normal high. We had 4 days more than 1 standard deviation above normal highs (4.8 normal), and 7 days more than 1 standard deviation below normal lows (4.8 normal).
It was the last two days when everything went crazy. Temperatures spiked to 110 degF, with 107, 108 and 109 high temperatures common everywhere in the area. These set not just local records for the day, but for the month and in one case, for ever (109F).
Here is the end-of-month histogram that shows the breakdown of high and low temperature range counts from June 1948 on. It just emphasizes normalcy for June 2012, with no category falling outside of the error bars of the average. Possible exception is the 100+ Highs category, where 3 such days falls outside of the 0 +/- 1 range.
We continue our dry weather, with only two events of rain during the month. The figure below shows the Athens precipitation data which are official for our area. As usual the green line shows our actual rainfall, the red shows the average accumulation expected. The black dots are rainfall over the last 20 years, the vast river of peach shows the standard deviation.
Our total out here was 3.40", and in Athens it was 2.95". 4.18" is normal, so once again we’re below the average.
Prognosticator stuff:
What is the neat prognosticator telling us? It says that for the next week the South can expect cooler than normal temperatures, and warmer just about everywhere else. After that, and for the next three months it will be warmer than usual in much of the US.
Precipitation will is a little complicated to describe for everyone, but at least in the southeast the next three months shows at least an equal chance of normal precipitation, and above normal over the next week or two.
ENSO stuff:
Finally, the folks at CPC have a version of PDF or HTML that is much different from their previous presentations, but at least it’s there and the link isn’t broken.
Temperatures in the western Pacific are starting to increase enough above average that there’s a 50% probability of an El Niño developing over the next few months. This might provide some relief from drought and heat this summer, as well as helping to suppress hurricane development in the North Atlantic. However at the same time, global temperature averages increase in an El Niño and decrease in a La Niña, so in the long term we might have the hottest year on record ahead of us.
The US Drought Monitor continues to have us in extreme to exceptional drought, depending on where you are in Georgia. In fact, most of the US is now under at least abnormally dry or moderate drought classification, with a lot of the country in severe or extreme drought.
NOAA’s Monthly State of the Climate product for May is available. Scroll down for a Year to Date summary for each US region. The summary for 2011 regionally, nationally, and globally is also available.
