Native Plants, Habitat Restoration, and Other Science Snippets from Athens, Georgia

Friday: 4 April 2014

The Month of March  -  @ 07:14:25
It's The Month of March, Number 98 in a series. No box turtles here yet.

When people talk of an unusually cold winter in the eastern half of the US, it's true, at least in the north. And in March it continued to be true. When the western half talks of unusually warm and dry, that too is true. And when we talk about March, we might as well be talking about February.


Here are the usual temperature anomalies products, at the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. Displayed are the mean temperature anomalies, not the absolute temperatures.

Click on the image for the high and low anomaly graphic on a new page:

I could as easily reproduce the same summary as in February, the anomalous temperatures are so similar:

As I mentioned above, much of the eastern part of the country continued unusually cold weather. But the northern cold anomaly moved west in February, and retreated from the southeasternmost states.

With only the smallest differences, the southeastern states were a bit cooler in March, and the cold anomalies not quite so severe except around the Great Lakes, the northern Plains States, and New England.

We find the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's precipitation plots here.

As with temperatures, the precipitation anomalies in March, look pretty much like they did in February. There was some relief from the drought in California in March, but apparently the snow pack even so is only about 1/3 normal. From February:

The monthly precipitation anomalies across the country look remarkably the same as in January. Some relief from the drought came to much of California in February. Precipitation surpluses also picked up in the northwestern quadrant of the country. But normal to lower than normal precipitation remained the rule almost everywhere else.

For the Athens, GA area:

Below is my usual daily rain/temperature plot visualizing the changes in temperatures and precipitation. The spiky lines are temperatures recorded roughly ten times a day, and the lighter blue columns are Wolfskin rainfall measurements. The black line is the normal average daily temperature, and you can see that we're now starting to creep upward.

In March, we had quite a fluctuation in temperatures - five instances of several days of warm, pleasant days. Those were punctuated with periods of colder than normal temperatures. This is a reflection of several cold fronts moving through our area. While this is certainly not unusual in spring, the usually attendant stormy weather didn't really emerge, except one anemic effort mid-month. Of course, that's the one that took out a sliding glass door!

Here in the Athens area, we were somewhat below normal in temperatures in March. The Athens area mean temperature during March was a little less than two degrees below the normal 53.2F. We didn't break any record highs or lows.

We had only 3 days more than 1 standard deviation above normal highs (average is 4.8 days). But we had 9 nights with temperatures more than 1 standard deviation below normal lows (average is 5.0 nights). By these criteria, temperatures in March tended low mainly because of lower than normal nighttime temperatures. High temperatures were 2 degF below normal; low temperates were 4 degF below normal.

The monthly histogram below shows the breakdown of high and low temperature range counts from March 1948 on. The error bars are just plus/minus one standard deviation, which I arbitrarily set as the limits outside of which are "significantly" anomalous.

With one exception, the high temperature ranges fall on or within the error bars. Right in the middle of the scale, there were significantly fewer days with temperatures 60-69F, dividing the population of highs into two groups. There was one low temperature range significantly different from the norm: we had more cooler nights, with the 31-40F nights numbering higher than usual. (Actually, we did have fewer warm nights, with lows >50. Actually we didn't have any such nights!)

Below is the monthly accumulation of rain in Athens, GA. The river of peach is the long term standard deviation of all the daily black dots in the last 15 years, and the red line is the daily cumulative average. We're the green line this year, and for almost half the month it cradled that surplus of blue above the one standard deviation mark.

We had three significant periods of precitation in March, and still came out considerably below the average 4.43" rainfall for the month: 3.37" in Athens and 3.29" out here in Wolfskin. That's our second month in a row with a substantial rain deficit.

By the end of March, I hadn't encountered any box turtles (actually even now, Apr 3, I haven't seen any), so they're nearly two weeks overdue. I'm attributing that mainly due to our dry weather in the latter half of the month.

Prognosticator stuff:

What is the prognosticator telling us (as of April 3)?

First, nationwide, the current situation of warmer in the West, cool in the East, will prevail for the next week. Temperatures will trend back toward a somewhat higher probability of warmer than usual weather over the three month long term period for the West and South. The North will continue normal to cooler.

The southeast US will continue dry weather for the next week, then much of the country east of the Rockies will trend wetter than normal for week 2. West of the Rockies remains dry. Months 2 and 3 look fairly normal for much of the country, although spots of dry will continue along the West coast.

There is also the seasonal drought outlook on that page, and it doesn't look good for the southwest and west over the MAM period.

ENSO stuff:

The folks at CPC have a version of PDF or HTML that is much different from their previous presentations, but at least it's there and the link isn't broken.

As of 3 March, ENSO neutral conditions continue, and are expected to remain neutral, now through the Northern Hemisphere spring. We've remained ENSO neutral now for 22 months. The last time we had such a lengthy period without an El Niño or La Niña must be at this point in the 1990s.

(There continue to be signs that an El Niño may be gearing up for later in the summer. 50% chance is the likelihood, with a 10-20% chance that we'll have another La Niña.)

NOAA's Monthly State of the Climate product for February is available. Extensive ice cover in the northeast, and snow everywhere in the East. Balancing that out are above normal temperatures in the West, with continuing exceptional drought in California. Didn't look good for Texas, either, in February.

You'll find that and more in the preliminary annual report for 2013 regionally, nationally, and globally. NOAA will add to and modify it over the course of the next few months.

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